Iu.S.Iershov, V.S. Zaikin, V. N. Pavlov, V.M. Sokolov
Analysis and forecast of social-economic development by use of Markov models: Interregional aspect
Theoretical Issues of Regional Economics
The paper considers the use of Markov models in studies of interregional reconciliation of rates and proportions in regional development. Proposed is a system of models of analysis and forecasting including a forecasting model of logistical ties among regions and a Markov forecasting model of equilibrium prices in interregional exchange. The forecasting model of logistical ties is reconciled, in its turn, with models of RF regions' relations and with the Markov forecasting model of equilibrium prices in interregional exchange. This system of models allows, on the basis of available statistical information, to get forecasting estimations of regional development and equilibrium prices of interregional exchange.
Economic grounds for fiscal federalism
Regional Policy and Economic Issues of Federalism
The author reviews theoretical approaches to prediction of possible economic consequences from devolution of fiscal policy and formation of federal relations. Theoretical models built on the theory of public choice are suggested in order to explain merits of fiscal federalism, existence of its varieties with limitations peculiar to them as well as to justify the objectives of regional policy.
N.L.Dobretsov, A.E. Kontorovich, A.G. Korzhubaev, V.V. Kuleshov, V.Ie. Seliverstov, V.I. Suslov
Scientific basis for strategy of the social-economic development of Siberia
Economic Issues of Siberian Development
At present Siberia exceeds the national per capita gross domestic product more than 1.2 times. This puts it to one of the leading places in the national economy. A strategy is being elaborated to provide Siberia's active role in solving the national tasks, supplying the needs of Russia's domestic market and exporting its resources; creation in Siberia by the year 2020 of a self-sufficient integrated economy as a part of the common national economic space and providing comfortable habitation and high living standards for its inhabitants. These tasks can be fulfilled with governmental participation in a number of directions of priority, primarily in elaboration and adoption of legislation supporting its social-economic sphere. One of main factors in Siberian economic growth is its huge resource potential. неизбежно будут стимулировать развитие экономики Сибири на протяжении 20 -30 и более лет. В разрабатываемой стратегии Сибирь рассматривается в составе Сибирского федерального округа и Тюменской области, а по некоторым проблемам вместе с Республикой Саха (Якутия). Стратегия отражает позицию авторов на будущее развитие Сибири. The forecasted economic growth in Russia as well as demand of the world economy for many types of resources will inevitably stimulate within two or three or more decades the economic growth in Siberia. In this strategy Siberia is taken as Siberian federal district and the Tiumen oblast and, in particular issues, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). This strategy reflects the authors' view of the future development of Siberia.
V.I.Goriachenko, Ie.B. Kibalov
Principles for building an organisational structure of management in the Siberian federal district: An attempt at expert evaluation
An expert analysis of Siberia's external relations (with other states) and internal relations (with other Russia's regions) within Interregional Association "Siberian Accord" shows that if the present ties continue Siberia tends to distance itself from European Russia and become tied closer with economically more efficient neighbouring states. In order to abate these undesirable tendencies experts advise to use in Siberia a mixed strategy when it is governed as a quasi-state and at the same time as a quasi-corporation.
Beta-analysis of an hierarchy of social-economic units
Social Issues of Regional Development
A method for analysis of conditional distribution of a hierarchy of units by a continual variable on the basis of beta-distribution is considered. The model permits visually to present shifts in distribution of affluence/poverty and of concentration in social groups of units with a certain level of assets. A model of households' income mobility based on beta-distribution is described. Estimated are critically low and critically high levels of incomes at which in the period considered poverty and affluence, respectively, are reproduced. For these estimations confidence intervals are obtained.
S.V.Soboleva, N.Ie. Smirnova
Life longevity of Siberian regions' population in 1989-1999: Basic trends
Expected life longevity of urban and rural population of Siberia in 1989-1999 are analysed. It is found that within the dynamic series two opposite trajectories of expected life longevity are traced, that is, downward (reduction) in 1989-1994 and upward (growth) in 1995-1999. An important place is given to analysis of spatial and sex-and-age differentiation of life longevity variable as well as to estimation of demographic losses suffered by Siberian regions due to high death rate (super-mortality).
S.V.Kazantsev, Ie.A. Kolomak
Competitiveness of regions connected with the military sector
Regional and Interregional Aspects of Structural and Investment Policy
The authors consider competitiveness of regions connected with the military sector. The characteristics of analysis include production of surplus product, environmental load and efficiency of regional economic policy. It is shown that despite their common problem of conversion, the regions vary in competitiveness, its level and trend. Discerned are groups of regions improving their competitive ability and those where it is degrading. The policies of regional administrations in economic processes are also different. But what is common for the regions under consideration is intensity and efficiency of economic regulation that exceeds the national average.
Assessments of economic performance of the Irkutsk oblast
The Activity of Executive and Legislative Bodies of Power in Siberian Regions
The paper examines the efficiency of economic policy implemented in the Irkutsk oblast in regard to the formation of an uniform economic-social complex that would comply with basic interests of inhabitants and abate sub-regional disparities. By identifying priorities in the corporate interests of the Irkutsk oblast revealed are the basic trends in its development allowing to assess the level of regional governance.
Credit cooperation as a source of investments (Rozanova, L.I.)