Russian version

¹ 3-2010
Content

«Fundamental Issues of Spatial Development: Interdisciplinary Synthesis». Program Issued by the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences
S.A. Suspitsin (susp@ieie.nsc.ru) Spatial transformations: forecasts and assessments made by using a complex of hierarchy calculations concerning the development of the multiregional structure of the Russian Federation
The paper presents the author's vision of the Russian future made through comparative assessment of the world situation. We offer a scheme and appropriate calculations of how the scenarios could be consequently developed over the levels of spatial hierarchy. The forecasts for the Siberian Federal District -considered as four macroregions - are made. We formulated the proposals on how such hierarchic forecast methodology could be applied to other federal districts and Northern territories
Key words: spatial transformations in the economy, governmental regional policy, forecasting and modeling spatial development

V.S. Selin (silin@iep.kolasc.net.ru), E.P. Bashmakova (bashmakova@iep.kolasc.net.ru) Northern and Arctic regions: what role they play in Russian development under new geo-economic conditions
The paper shows the growing contradictory tendencies which govern the world line-up and force cohesion in the XXI century. We present our assessment of the environmental, resource and transportation potential in Northern and Arctic regions; and we prove that Russian Northern and Arctic regions are of special interest to the country in ensuring the national economic, geo-politic, defensive and other interests. The energy resources and transportation potential in Northern and Arctic regions, as we believe, could be one of the tools advisable to modernize the national economy and ensure - through realizing an effective governmental socio-economic policy - the sustainable spatial development in Northern and Arctic regions
Key words: North, Arctic, hydrocarbonic recourses, transportation potential, Northern Sea Route, clusters, space, geopolitics, geoeconomics, economic interests, political interests

Regional Policy and Economic Issues of Federalism
S.V. Kazantsev ( svkaz@inecon.ru ) Economic safety and estimation of a region economic protection
Economic protection of regions is one of the set of elements of a national economic safety system. The paper discusses the key notions of economic safety, and it offers a technique to estimate levels of regions' economic protection
Key words: economic safety, protection, region, economic indicators, assessment

Economic Issues in Regional Development
S.A. Kirillova (kirillova_sa@mail.ru), O.G. Kantor ( o_kantor@mail.ru ) Regional development and quality of an economic space
The study assesses to what degree the economic space in the Russian Federation was integrated and homogenous over 1998-2007. To assess such integrity, we base upon a hypothesis of the growing integration tendencies occurring under globalization conditions; and our verification of the hypothesis is made in association with the scopes and spatial specialization of regional economies. Òî assess the homogeneity, we verify the hypothesis of whether ÃÇ-and ñò-convergence exist in the Russian economic space
Key words: economic space, region, integrity, differentiation, homogeneity, convergence

L.V. Melnikova (Lolita@ieie.nsc.ru) Assessing the geography of investment flows
The paper presents an indirect method for assessing directions of financial flows between regions. We tested whether the regional investment potential could be analyzed through applying data provided by the national accounts statistics (such indicators as the gross profit and gross mixed income), and data provided by the regional statistics (an index of potential investment resources calculated on the base of some indicators). As we determined, both show similar results - the growing financial potential in the period of high economic growth rates. We introduce a special coefficient showing a region/industry investment rating calculated according to the "sender-addressee" principle. The dynamics of this coefficient allows assessing the potential scopes and directions of redistribution of investment resources between regions
Key words: inter-regional investment flows, directions, methods, assessment, potentional investment resources, regional investment position

T.N. Gavrilyeva (tuyara@list.ru) Forming the state-guaranteed orders for providing fiscal services
The paper analyzes a current system of the state-guaranteed and municipal orders for providing fiscal services. As we show, a current regulatory and methodical framework proved to be too formal, and it does not allow using the system of orders as an effective tool of fiscal policy. We present the new approaches; they, in contrast to standard methods, include incentives to develop local markets of fiscal services through applying the formal approaches which help assess the different consumers' demand for fiscal services. This would allow a medium-term forecast of quantitative variables of the orders and budgetary allocations
Key words: agent of fiscal planning, fiscal services, orders, region, finance, norm, medium-term planning

Social Issues of Regional Development
Z.I. Kalugina (zima@ieie.nsc.ru) Vector of the post-crisis development in Russian rural communities
The paper presents the author's understanding of the post-crisis development in Russian rural communities; analyzes the results of liberal transformations; shows the specific features of a current rural development model; outlines what would happen to Russian rural communities in the future; and describes mechanisms for achieving the strategic goals of future development
Key words: urgent socials problems, rural development model, image of Russian rural communities in the future, phases and mechanisms for achieving a strategic goal

L.A. Popova (popova@iespn.komisc.ru) Demographic policy in Northern Russia: peculiarities and priorities
The paper proves that a demographic crisis in Northern Russia is much deeper than the official vital statistics shows. The most severe problems are the young age-specific mortality patterns; a high share of deaths due to external factors and diseases of exogenous etiology; low birth rates among those who live in traditionally Russian Northern areas, and among Aboriginals who live in the areas with the completed demographic transition; a high degree of family life disruption; and interdependence between the uncompleted demographic transition of Northern Aboriginal peoples and their unfavorable qualitative birth characteristics and high child mortality. Just they predetermine the goals and tasks of Northern demographic policy
Key words: Northern areas, natural population decline, age pattern, demographic transition, life expectancy, child mortality, quantitative and qualitative aspects of natality, marital and family relationship, demographic policy

Regional and Interregional Aspects of Structural and Investment policies
V.A. Bykovsky (alby76@yandex.ru) West-Siberian oil-and-gas complex: problems and decisions
The study analyses the issues of the development of the West-Siberian oil-and-gas complex. Before the 1990-s, when the complex was creating as a new national base of oil-and-gas production, the country faced the difficulties due to the lack of investments, equipment, materials, and vehicles, as well as a housing deficit, whereas later the reducing efficiency of the complex's operating was observed. The causes of this economic phenomenon are analyzed here. We also outline a long-run policy of the oil-and-gas production in the region
Key words: North, West Siberia, development, oil-and-gas industry, production, profit, efficiency, geologic exploration

N.S. Martyshenko (natalya.martyshenko@wsu.ru) Issues of analysis and forecast of spatial development in the recreation and touristic sectors
The paper considers a technique to interpret the information of the answers to open questions, which is of the unstructured nature, as the structured information. Such technique allows building the typologies useful for analysis of the spatial development structures of touristic clusters
Key words: unstructured information, questionnaire, consumer typology, recreation, tourism

A.I. Shipilina (annsha@ngs.ru, ), I.A. Bespalov (phoenix_w@mail.ãà ) Application of the fuzzy sets theory to assessment of the large-scale investment projects
The paper considers the issues of how to assess the efficiency of the large-scale investment projects. We offer an approach to choosing a preferred project among competitive ones when making a decision on the selection of an investment project. The approach is grounded upon both the principals of system analysis applied in the fuzzy sets theory and expert technologies. Our special focus is on how to assess the investment costs and their fluctuations depending on investment risks while the preproject analysis is being carried out. To make our calculation, we use a simulated case-study on «Transportation Network Project for Russian Far North and Far East»
Key words: investment project, efficiency, uncertainty, expert, costs, alternative, fuzzy sets theory, term set

Ecological and Economic Issues of Regional Development
B.L. Radnaev (rbl@binm.bscnet.ru), A.S. Mikheeva (asmiheeva@binm.bscnet.ru) Approaches to the ecologic-economic assessment of desertification of areas
The paper offers an approach to assess the economic, social and ecologic consequences of desertification. We identify the key factors producing economic damage. The ecologic-economic analysis of a simulative area of intense desertification is presented. To assess economic and social consequences of desertification, we use the data of the public opinion poll
Key words: desertification, assessment, consequences, ecologic-economic damage, direct losses of product, lost profits

Practices of Regional Executive and Legislative Authorities
M.D. Duganov(mduganov@rambler.ru), A.A. Shabunova(aas@vscc.ac.ru), K.N. Kalashnikov (konstantino-84@mail.ru) Efficiency of health care expenditures: assessing the experience of Vologda Oblast
The study analyzes present approaches applied to assess how effective the expenditures for public health care are. We show that the techniques based on nothing but assessment of the resource components have some defects as they fail to allow for social effects. To overcome this shortage, we recommend the technique which is of 5-years practice in the Vologda Oblast, and which compounds the financial and demographic analysis. We present the results of our economic analysis made by applying such technique
Key words: Vologda Oblast, health care, public expenditures, efficiency, methods, cost estimation

Local Self-Government and Municipal Development
A.S. Marshalova (marnov@ieie.nsc.ru), A.S. Novoselov (asnov@ieie.nscr) Competitiveness and development strategies for municipal units
The paper analyzes methodological issues of how to assess the competitiveness of municipal units; considers the issues of designing a strategy of socio-economic municipal unit development, and issues of planning the incomes and expenditures of local budgets; and analyzes scenarios of the socio-economic development in cities
Key words: municipal governance, municipal unit, competitiveness, socio-economic development strategy, local budget

N.V. Zamyatina (ZamyatinaNV@mail.ru) How to make municipal budgets more stable
The paper shows the ways to make municipal budgets more stable such as the lower shares of conditional intergovernmental transfers, the greater tax revenues and greater non-tax ones to local budgets, and a new distribution of the spending powers and revenue sources between governments. The analysis of the structure of municipal fiscal revenues is presented too
Key words: Saratov, budget, tax sources, spending powers, intergovernmental transfers

Economics of Enterprises
V.G. Basareva (veransk@hnet.ru) Building a segment of small business in the period of transformations: institutional peculiarities
The study considers a model of relative demand-supply for an aggregated segment of small business, and a model of an individual's rational market behaviour. Our econometric calculations show that, when the reforms started, the labour demand in the segment of small business depended on such indicators as a ratio of incomes in new sectors to the incomes in traditional sectors, and the level of the population's previous cash accumulations and their inclinations towards risks. Entrepreneurs' trust toward local authorities and the relatively high economic potential of regional institutes induced the higher labour demand in the segment of small business
Key words: small business, entrepreneurial risk, self-employment, system of simultaneous equations, method of assessment


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